September 2026 European Starch Industry Outlook by Roquette market analysts

The starch value chain is navigating a period of concrete, broad-based cost pressure. Volatile agricultural markets, elevated operating costs and geopolitical uncertainty are weighing on the entire industry, even as demand remains cautious but resilient.

Current market indicators point to cumulative pressures that may affect the European starch value chain in 2027. The nature and impact of these factors may vary by company, geography, product and customer context.

This update summarizes Roquette’s current market analysis across raw materials, energy, freight, macroeconomics and the starch industry, together with examples of measures Roquette is implementing to support supply continuity, quality and service for its customers.

This outlook reflects Roquette’s analysis, as of the date of publication, of publicly available information, market indicators and aggregated industry data. It is provided for general information only and is subject to change. It does not constitute pricing guidance, a forecast or commitment regarding future commercial conduct, or a recommendation concerning the conduct of any market participant. Recipients should make their own independent assessment.

Europe Continues to Face a Structural Cost Disadvantage 

Weather conditions continue to play a decisive role in shaping agricultural markets across Europe. Successive summer heatwaves have reduced yield expectations for several key crops, including corn, waxy corn, peas, and potatoes. Lower harvest prospects are tightening the availability of critical raw materials throughout the starch value chain, increasing pressure on both supply and pricing.

While global grain production remains substantial, both wheat and corn output are projected to fall short of consumption, leading to a gradual drawdown of worldwide inventories. Supply concerns are further compounded by ongoing disruptions to Black Sea trade routes, which continue to affect logistics flows and maintain a geopolitical risk premium in global grain markets.

Against this backdrop, agricultural commodity markets are expected to remain firm and highly responsive to weather developments, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in international trade dynamics.

Energy costs continue to represent a major competitive challenge for European manufacturers. Natural gas and electricity prices in Europe remain significantly higher than in many other regions globally. In addition, rising carbon costs continue to undermine the competitiveness of European industrial operations. EU ETS carbon futures have increased from 66€/t in March to approximately 85€/t by mid-September 2026 (Reuters), a gain of nearly 29%. This trend is expected to persist as the progressive phased out of free CO2 allowances further increases compliance costs for energy-intensive industries.

 This increase has been driven by heightened geopolitical tensions affecting global LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) flows, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, combined with European gas storage levels that remain significantly below seasonal norms heading into winter 2026/27.

Beyond energy, manufacturers are facing sustained inflationary pressure across logistics and industrial inputs. Road transportation costs continue to increase globally due to labor shortages, higher fuel prices, and rising operating expenses. Ocean freight markets remain volatile, reflecting geopolitical uncertainties, route disruptions, and persistent port congestion. Packaging materials, chemicals, and other non-agricultural inputs are also trending upward, driven by elevated energy and feedstock costs as well as broader inflationary pressures.

Taken together, these developments are creating a structurally higher cost environment for the European starch industry while further widening the competitiveness gap with lower-cost producing regions.

Demand Remains Resilient Despite Challenging Conditions

Geopolitical tensions have weakened the 2026/27 macroeconomic outlook provided by the IMF. Global real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth is projected at 3.0% in 2026, recovering to 3.4% in 2027, with the negative impact of the Middle East conflict partly offset by stronger AI-driven technology investment. Inflation, meanwhile, is proving persistent: global headline inflation is expected to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 3.9% in 2027, confirming that the disinflation trend seen since early 2024 has stalled.

In the Euro Area, the ECB (European Central Bank) projects real GDP growth of 0.8% in 2026, improving to 1.2% in 2027, supported by resilient labor markets, infrastructure spending and AI-related investment, even as higher energy costs and competitiveness challenges continue to weigh on activity. Euro Area inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, remaining above the ECB's target and limiting the pace of monetary easing.

Demand for starch and starch derivatives remains resilient despite the challenging economic backdrop. Market demand continued to grow in 2026, supported by robust consumption across several end-use sectors. In particular, starch sweeteners benefited from exceptionally strong summer demand, as heatwaves across Europe boosted beverage and food consumption. At the same time, export momentum for the European starch industry strengthened, with exports rising by approximately 7% year-to-date (Eurostat), driven largely by strong demand for potato starch on international markets. This improved export performance has contributed to higher asset utilization rates across starch production facilities in Europe.

While economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures and cost increases continue to weigh on market sentiment, underlying demand is expected to remain relatively resilient, supporting a moderated increase in starch and starch derivative consumption. Looking ahead to 2027, improving macroeconomic conditions could provide additional support for a gradual strengthening of demand growth.

Taken together, the industry continues to face significant cost pressure, driven by higher agricultural, energy, logistics and carbon costs. However, resilient demand is helping support operating rates across the European starch industry. Looking ahead to 2027, demand is expected to continue its gradual recovery, underpinned by stable consumption patterns. In this context, maintaining supply reliability will require continued vigilance, operational flexibility and proactive supply chain management.

Roquette in Action

In this volatile environment, Roquette continues to implement measures intended to strengthen operational resilience and support its customers, including:

• Strengthening raw material sourcing – diversifying sourcing strategies, securing access to key agricultural feedstocks, and closely monitoring crop conditions to anticipate supply risks.
• Enhancing supply chain resilience – optimizing inventory management and logistics networks, and leveraging multiple production sites and supply options to improve flexibility.
• Driving operational excellence – maximizing plant reliability and production efficiency, while investing in process improvements and capacity optimization.
• Managing market volatility – closely tracking energy, transportation and raw material cost developments, and implementing proactive risk management to limit the impact of market fluctuations.
• Partnering closely with customers – maintaining appropriate communication on relevant market developments and working with customers, subject to applicable contractual and competition-law requirements, to improve forecast visibility and manage supply-related risks.
• Focusing on long-term sustainability – advancing sustainable sourcing and resource efficiency initiatives to build a more resilient value chain.

Conclusion

Current indicators suggest that the European starch value chain may continue to face cumulative pressure from agricultural, energy, carbon and logistics costs in 2027. The timing, extent and commercial impact of these factors remain uncertain and may differ across market participants.

Roquette is taking steps to mitigate these pressures where reasonably possible. Any future pricing decisions will be determined independently, on a case-by-case basis, taking into account applicable contractual arrangements, relevant market conditions and applicable law. Nothing in this update constitutes notice of, or a commitment to, any future price change.

Through diversified sourcing, supply chain resilience initiatives, operational improvement and customer dialogue, Roquette intends to support reliable service and manage supply risks in an uncertain environment. The effectiveness of these measures may depend on factors outside Roquette’s control, and specific supply arrangements remain subject to the terms agreed with each customer.

This document contains forward-looking statements based on assumptions and information available at the date of publication. Actual developments may differ materially due to market, regulatory, geopolitical, operational or other factors. Nothing in this outlook constitutes an offer, a contractual commitment, a guarantee of supply or service, or a commitment by Roquette regarding future pricing, volumes, sourcing decisions, production levels or commercial strategy. Roquette determines its commercial conduct independently, in accordance with its contractual obligations and applicable laws, including competition laws.