European Starch Industry Outlook by Roquette market analysts

Managing Uncertainty in 2026, Preparing for 2027

European industries continue to navigate a challenging environment in 2026, shaped by geopolitical tensions, energy market volatility, cautious demand, and evolving agricultural conditions. While many of the risks identified at the beginning of the year remain relevant, recent developments suggest companies should already be preparing for the challenges that may emerge in 2027.

This outlook is based on ROQUETTE’s analysis of publicly available information, market indicators, and aggregated industry data available at the date of publication. It is not intended to provide pricing guidance, to predict future commercial conduct, or to recommend any market behaviour.

According to Roquette market analysts, the current environment requires close monitoring of geopolitical developments, weather patterns, energy markets, and customer demand.

Commodity Market Dynamics

Grains markets remain under pressure from a combination of geopolitics, weather developments and production economics. The recent heatwave across Europe is raising concerns about potentially reduced production levels for several key crops, including corn, wheat, potato, peas and sugar beet, bringing market conditions closer to those experienced during the challenging 2022/23 crop year. Lower yields are currently anticipated in certain regions  with additional uncertainty around crop quality.

For European producers, the impact extends beyond local availability. France remains a key reference market for European grains, and the deterioration of the French corn crop is already supporting MATIF corn prices. Depending on final crop outcomes and market conditions, additional sourcing needs may arise in some regions, primarily within the EU, where comparable quality standards may be available. This could contribute to continued cost pressure across the value chain.

Another important risk is crop quality. Persistently hot and dry weather conditions can increase the likelihood of quality issues, potentially reducing the volume of usable raw materials and creating additional sourcing challenges for the starch industries.

Combined with elevated energy, logistics and carbon costs, these agricultural risks could further challenge the competitiveness of European starch producers, making supply continuity, operational resilience and disciplined cost management important areas of focus for 2027.

Macro Market Dynamics

The global economic environment remains resilient, although growth has slowed amid heightened geopolitical tensions and rising energy costs. Following recent developments in the Middle East, the IMF forecasts global growth of approximately 3.1% in 2026, compared with 3.4% in 2025. Inflation is expected to remain elevated due to food and energy costs before moderating gradually.

This softer macroeconomic backdrop continues to weigh on business confidence across many industrial sectors, leading companies to adopt a more cautious approach to purchasing and investment decisions. Conditions may improve progressively during 2027 as inflation eases and economic stability returns, subject to the evolution of geopolitical, energy and demand conditions.

Starch Industry Dynamics

Demand for starch and starch derivatives is expected to remain positive in 2026 (>2,5% year to date growth vs last year) based on currently available market indicators, although growth has moderated amid economic uncertainty and cautious consumer spending. Despite these challenges, carbohydrate demand continued to expand during the first half of the year, demonstrating the resilience of starch-based applications across both food and industrial markets.

At the same time, the industry continues to face rising costs for agricultural raw materials, energy, logistics, labour, and carbon emissions. Operational disruptions and supply chain constraints have also contributed to supply tensions in certain starch and derivative categories.  As a result, producers may need to continue managing cost pressures while working to secure  reliable supplies of feedstocks and finished products.

Market fundamentals have nevertheless improved. Recent trade data indicates that EU starch product imports have declined by approximately 20% year-to-date, while exports have increased by around 3%. These indicators may suggest a more balanced global supply-demand environment, although market conditions remain subject to volatility and should be assessed on a product-by-product and region-by-region basis.

In addition, a growing number of publicly announced anti-dumping investigations and trade measures affecting imported biomaterials, bioplastics, and other bio-based products may contribute to a more level playing field for   locally produced fermentation-based solutions, depending on the outcome and scope of such measures. This trend could  provide further support for carbohydrate demand in industrial applications.

Looking ahead to 2027, demand is expected to continue its gradual recovery, supported by resilient consumption patterns and a more balanced global trade environment. However, maintaining competitiveness will require continued attention to  supply chain management, close monitoring of crop developments, and continued operational discipline. 

Securing Today, Preparing for Tomorrow

As market uncertainty persists, Roquette continues to strengthen its resilience and reinforce its role as a trusted partner. Through diversified sourcing, manufacturing optimization and enhanced supply chain flexibility, Roquette is actively addressing market challenges while safeguarding continuity of supply.

Looking ahead to 2027, Roquette believes that resilience in the starch industry will require   the ability to anticipate market shifts, secure critical feedstocks and maintain operational agility. By combining market insight, supply chain resilience and customer collaboration, Roquette remains committed to helping customers navigate uncertainty and capture future growth opportunities.

Nothing in this outlook should be interpreted as a commitment by Roquette regarding future pricing, volumes, sourcing decisions, production levels, or commercial strategy. Roquette will continue to make commercial decisions independently, in compliance with applicable competition laws.